Here’s how Australia can lose WTC Final spot and Sri Lanka can qualify

Jan 7, 2025

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Here’s how Australia can lose WTC Final spot and Sri Lanka can qualify

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How Australia can still lose WTC final spot

Australia solidified their place in the World Test Championship (WTC) final with a resounding six-wicket victory over India in Sydney, clinching the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) 2024-25 with a 3-1 series win. This marked Australia’s first Test series triumph over India since the 2014-15 season. With a points percentage of 63.73, Australia stands well ahead in the WTC standings, set to face South Africa at Lord’s in June.

How Australia can still lose their WTC Final spot

Australia’s next Test project is their tour of Sri Lanka and despite their strong position, Australia’s spot in the WTC final is not entirely secure. The only way they could lose their berth involves penalty points for slow over rates. A deduction of eight points across the two remaining matches would drop Australia’s points percentage below Sri Lanka’s maximum potential of 53.85, provided the Islanders wins their series 2-0. While such a scenario is rare, past over-rate penalties, such as the 10-point deduction Australia faced in the 2023 Ashes, show it is not impossible.

Also READ: Here’s the updated WTC 2023-25 points table after India loses the Border-Gavaskar Trophy against Australia

How Sri Lanka can overtake Australia to secure a WTC final berth

For Sri Lanka to qualify, they must sweep their upcoming series against Australia 2-0 and rely on Australia incurring significant penalty points for slow over rates. Even under this best-case scenario for Sri Lanka, their points percentage would rise to 53.85—enough to surpass Australia only if the latter’s percentage drops below that threshold due to penalties.

Fans awaiting Australia’s upcoming tour of Sri Lanka

Australia’s tour of Sri Lanka will be crucial in determining the final WTC standings. The spin-friendly conditions in Sri Lanka will test Australia’s adaptability, potentially impacting their over rates. Fans are eagerly anticipating this series, knowing it holds the key to Sri Lanka’s slim chances of making it to the WTC final. While Australia remains the favorite to secure their spot, cricket enthusiasts worldwide will be closely monitoring every development.