Australia vs England, 4th Ashes Test at Melbourne Cricket Ground sets the stage for high drama on Boxing Day, December 26, 2025. With Australia leading the 2025-26 Ashes series 3-0 after dominant wins in Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide, the Boxing Day clash offers England a chance to salvage pride despite the urn already retained by the hosts. Both teams face key absences, intensifying the battle at the iconic MCG, where over 90,000 fans traditionally pack the stands for this festive showdown.
Australia and England both lose their frontline pacers
Australian captain Pat Cummins, returning from a five-month back stress injury layoff, has been ruled out of the remainder of the Ashes series as a precautionary measure by team management. After featuring in limited action post his July 2025 comeback against West Indies, coaches opted not to risk long-term fitness, especially with the series secured, paving the way for Steve Smith to lead at the MCG. This rest aligns with preparations potentially eyeing the 2026 T20 World Cup, allowing pacers like Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood to shoulder the load on a pitch known for early bounce and carry favouring quicks.
England’s campaign hits rock bottom with pace spearhead Jofra Archer sidelined for the final two Tests due to a left side strain, capping a nightmare tour where the visitors trail 0-3. Archer, England’s standout performer with nine wickets across the first three Tests despite his injury-plagued history, exits after impressing post a four-year Test absence, replaced by Gus Atkinson in the XI alongside Jacob Bethell for dropped Ollie Pope. Ben Stokes now leads a depleted attack featuring Atkinson, Josh Tongue, Brydon Carse, and spinner Will Jacks, testing their resolve against Australia’s formidable batting on a surface where pacers have claimed 124 of recent wickets.
Melbourne Weather Forecast for the Boxing Day Test
Day 1
The opening day of the Test at the MCG is expected to be played under mostly cloudy and breezy conditions, with temperatures hovering around a cool 16 degrees during the day and dropping to 11 degrees at night. Strong south-southwesterly winds could make batting tricky, especially under lights, as low cloud cover is likely to assist swing bowling. While there is a small chance of a light shower, rain is unlikely to disrupt play, keeping conditions ideal for fast bowlers to make early inroads.
Day 2
Day two should bring similar challenges for batters, with persistent low clouds and cool weather continuing to aid seam movement. Afternoon winds are expected to pick up, further assisting the pacers. The morning session may test the technique and patience of top-order batters, although conditions are forecast to ease out as the day progresses.
Day 3
The third day marks a clear shift in weather, with sunshine and warmer temperatures setting in. With no rain expected and improved bounce on offer, batting should become more comfortable. As the pitch settles, stroke-makers, particularly in the middle order, could take control and post significant runs.
Day 4
By day four, the Test is likely to be played under bright sunshine and rising heat. The warmer conditions will test players’ stamina, and as the surface starts to show wear, spinners may finally come into play. Tactical declarations and calculated chases could define the day’s narrative.
Day 5
The final day is forecast to be the hottest, with very warm and clear conditions favoring aggressive batting. Any target set could be chased with intent, provided wickets remain in hand. Overall, the evolving MCG surface and uninterrupted weather promise a full, gripping contest where bowlers strike early, batters cash in later, and the match builds toward a dramatic summer finish.
Overall, the forecast signals minimal interruptions, shifting from cool, bowler-friendly opening days to batting paradises later, amplifying tactical intrigue at the MCG. Australia’s depth gives them edge, but England’s fightback hinges on exploiting early seam amid these conditions.
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